Toronto’s condo market looks very different today than it did a few years ago.
There is plenty of inventory, buyers have more choice, and many condo sellers are facing longer selling times and more negotiation.
But there is another side of the story that is getting more attention.
Future condo supply is shrinking.
CMHC has warned that the sharp slowdown in condo construction today could contribute to supply shortages in Toronto in the years ahead.
RBC Economics has also pointed to the same imbalance: there may be many condos available today, while the pipeline of new units for the future continues to decline.
Urbanation’s latest data makes this especially interesting.
The number of condo units in pre-construction and under construction has fallen by approximately 37% year-over-year.
There were also no new project launches for two consecutive quarters, and since the beginning of 2024, approximately 11,653 condo units have been cancelled.
Why does this matter?
Because the condos that buyers will be purchasing three, four or five years from now need to be planned and built today.
If developers continue delaying or cancelling projects, today’s oversupply could gradually turn into a very different market.
That does not mean condo prices will automatically rise. Interest rates, immigration, employment, affordability and buyer demand will all continue to influence the market.
But it does mean that today’s condo market should not be viewed in isolation.
For buyers, sellers and investors, it is important to look not only at current inventory, but also at what is being built — or not being built — for the future.
If you are planning to buy or sell a condo in Toronto or the GTA and want to understand how the current market may affect your decision, feel free to contact me.
Planning to buy or sell? Let’s look at your specific market segment.
Alla Poltavski 416 7353158
Real Estate Agent | Toronto & GTA